Every number has a source. The projection engine is pure deterministic math — no black-box AI in core calculations. This page documents every formula, dataset, and efficacy value used.
Axial length at age 18 is projected using observed growth rate and RCT-derived treatment efficacy:
For first visits (no prior AL), the growth rate is estimated from population-average normative data for the patient's age and ethnicity.
Percentile rankings are calculated against the following peer-reviewed normative datasets, selected by ethnicity:
| Ethnicity | Dataset | n |
|---|---|---|
| European / White | Tideman et al. 2016/2018 — JAMA Ophthalmol | 5,766 |
| Multi-ethnic / Mixed | Sanz Diez et al. 2019 — Ophthalmic Physiol Opt | 4,512 |
| East Asian / South Asian | He et al. 2015 — Ophthalmology (Shenzhen Myopia Study) | 1,892 |
| Hispanic / Latino, African / Black | Sanz Diez et al. 2019 (multi-ethnic subset) | — |
All efficacy figures represent reduction in axial elongation vs untreated control at the primary RCT endpoint (~2 years). They are not cure rates or final AL targets.
| Treatment | Efficacy | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Combination Therapy | 60–75% (modelled†) | Multiplicative composite; capped at 75% |
| Stellest® (HALT lens) | 67%‡ | Bao et al. 2022 — JAMA Ophthalmol |
| Atropine 0.05% | 58% | Yam et al. 2019 (LAMP) — Ophthalmology |
| MiSight® 1 day | 55% | Chamberlain 2019 — Optom Vis Sci |
| MiyoSmart® (DIMS) | 52% | Lam CSY et al. 2020 — Lancet |
| Ortho-K | 50% | Composite of multiple RCTs (Cho 2005, Santodomingo 2012) |
| Atropine 0.025% | 45% | Yam et al. 2019 (LAMP) — Ophthalmology |
| Atropine 0.01% | 30% | Chia et al. 2012 (ATOM2) — Ophthalmology |
| Outdoor / Behavioural | 18% | Wu et al. 2013; He et al. 2015 |
‡ The 67% figure for Stellest® is from the full-time wearer subgroup (≥12 hrs/day wear compliance) in Bao et al. 2022. The intention-to-treat (ITT) population result is approximately 51%. MyopiaTracker uses 67% as the clinical target efficacy assuming full compliance, consistent with how the result is widely cited in clinical literature. Clinicians should counsel patients that real-world outcomes depend on wear hours. † Combination Therapy is a modelled composite (multiplicative formula, capped at 75%). No single RCT validates this figure directly. The range shown (60–75%) reflects model uncertainty; 68% is the midpoint used in projections. The proximity of the upper bound to Stellest® monotherapy (67%) reflects the mathematical ceiling of stacking high-efficacy treatments — at this efficacy level, combination adds marginal measurable benefit over high-efficacy monotherapy alone.
The composite risk score is a clinical communication aid — not a validated diagnostic instrument. Weights are adapted from Tideman et al. 2018 risk model:
| Factor | Weight |
|---|---|
| AL percentile (vs age/ethnicity norms) | 30% |
| Growth velocity (mm/year) | 28% |
| Projected AL at age 18 | 22% |
| Parental myopia (reported) | 12% |
| Near-work hours/day | 8% |
95% confidence bands on growth projections are calculated as:
Where SD is drawn from the normative dataset for the patient's age and ethnicity group. Confidence intervals widen appropriately over longer projection horizons.