The short answer is yes — and the published evidence from China, Europe, the USA, and Asia consistently shows that school closures and indoor confinement in 2020–2022 accelerated myopia onset and progression, especially in the youngest children.
The COVID-19 pandemic created an unprecedented natural experiment for myopia researchers. School closures across most of the world in 2020–2021 resulted in: dramatically reduced outdoor time; increased screen time for schoolwork and leisure; more time indoors under artificial lighting; and fewer clinical eye examinations. The result was a measurable acceleration in myopia onset and progression globally.
A large-scale study from China (Wang J et al., JAMA Ophthalmol 2021) examined 123,535 children aged 6–13 years in Feicheng City and found that myopia prevalence in 2020 was substantially higher than in the five preceding years — with the greatest effect in 6-year-olds, who showed a three-fold increase in myopia detection compared with 2015–2019. The authors noted that the 2020 prevalence exceeded the highest previously recorded level.
Similar patterns were documented across Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, the UK, Italy, Ireland, and the USA. A systematic review on the COVID-19 impact on childhood myopia progression noted approximately 0.30D additional myopia progression during 2020 compared with pre-pandemic periods, particularly in younger children.
The IMI 2025 Digest notes that Taiwan, which maintained outdoor activities in schools during COVID restrictions, showed stabilisation or reversal of myopia prevalence trends that contrasted with countries where outdoor activity was curtailed. This finding provides some of the strongest causal evidence that outdoor time — not near work reduction alone — is the operative protective factor.
Children aged 6–8 showed the largest COVID-19 effects for several reasons: they are in the most vulnerable window for myopia onset (the period when hyperopic reserve is lowest and environment has greatest influence); they typically rely on school-structured outdoor time that disappeared with closures; they increased screen time more dramatically than older children who were already habituated; and their eyes are growing fastest, making any accelerating influence most impactful during this window.
The IMI 2025 Digest references this age-sensitive vulnerability in its discussion of pre-myopia interventions, noting that the COVID-19 data reinforces the importance of protecting outdoor time in the 6–10 year age window specifically.
Children who were aged 5–9 in 2020 and 2021 — now aged 10–14 in 2026 — form a cohort with potentially higher-than-expected myopia burden, earlier onset ages, and faster early progression trajectories than pre-pandemic cohorts. Clinicians should: be alert to higher-than-expected myopia rates in this age cohort; take axial length baselines in all children who did not have them before 2020; and apply IMI 2025 progression thresholds (≥0.30mm/yr = fast progressor warranting escalation) with awareness that this cohort may have more children in the elevated tier.